Published October 18, 2026 in Market Update

Primary market sales rose even with mortgage rates at 7.40%

By Erik Kelly

Real estate, Primary market

Rates are high. That is the plain truth. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% as of October 15, 2026. That is a real cost for every buyer writing an offer right now.

Even so, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,640 homes sold across the Primary market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 9.3% from the same three months a year before. Demand did not stop. It slowed in some ZIP codes and picked up sharply in others.

More homes sold and more are under contract. Fewer homes are sitting on the market overall. That combination tells you buyers are still making decisions, even with a 7.40% rate.

The national picture behind these local numbers

This is not just a local story. The National Association of Realtors reported 3.99 million existing-home sales nationally in September 2026. Prices were still up 1.3% year over year, the National Association of Realtors said. Nationally, inventory rose to 1.60 million homes.

Rates are squeezing buyers everywhere. Freddie Mac's 7.40% reading as of October 15, 2026 matched a three-year high that Redfin noted on October 15, 2026. Redfin also reported that the typical homebuyer's monthly payment reached $2,777, the highest on record except for the week before. That is the weight every buyer here is carrying too.

How each ZIP code moved

The market-wide number hides a wide spread. Some ZIP codes saw prices rise sharply. Others dipped. Speed varied a lot too. Here is what the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted for each ZIP code in the three months ending August 31, 2026.

Where prices rose and where they dipped

Not every ZIP code moved the same way. Two stood out on the upside. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed the median sale price in 85251 rose 17.8% year over year to $630,000. In 85260 it rose 15.9% to $747,500. Those are real gains, even in a high-rate market.

On the other side, 85018 saw the median price dip 7.5% to $1,207,500. In 85045 it fell 9.6% to $610,000. In 85014 it fell 9.1% to $485,500. A price dip does not mean a slow market. In 85045, homes sold in a median of 50 days, 36 days faster than a year before, the Real Estate Data Aggregator found.

Speed: which ZIP codes moved fastest

Speed tells you a lot about where demand is strongest. In 85044, the Real Estate Data Aggregator found that 32.8% of homes went under contract within two weeks of listing. That share jumped 12.5 points from a year ago. In 85248, 27.1% went under contract within two weeks, up 2.6 points.

Supply: how much choice buyers had

Months of supply measures how long it would take to sell every home listed, at the current pace. Six months is generally balanced. Below that, sellers have more leverage. Above it, buyers have more room to negotiate.

ZIP codes 85012 and 85016 are above six months. That means buyers there have more room. ZIP codes 85048 and 85044 are well below three months. Sellers in those areas have the tighter market.

What sellers are actually getting

Sale-to-list ratio tells you how close to asking price homes are closing. Across the ZIP codes, the Real Estate Data Aggregator found ratios from 96% in 85251 to 98.1% in 85249. No ZIP code is seeing sellers give away big discounts. Most homes closed within a few percent of asking.

A few ZIP codes worth a closer look

85044 had a strong three months. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 122 homes sold, with a median of just 46 days on market, 18 days faster than a year ago. The share of homes selling above list jumped 8.5 points to 15.6%. Prices dipped 7% to $458,750, but homes moved quickly and buyers competed.

85254 told a different story on speed. Median days on market rose 14 days to 76 days. But 234 homes still sold, up 18.2%, and months of supply fell 1.3 months to 3.3. More homes sold even though each one took a little longer.

85016 is the one to watch carefully. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted only 107 homes sold, down 20.1%. Months of supply rose 1.5 months to 7.1. That is the loosest market in this group. Sellers there need realistic pricing.